By Jeffrey Petts
If Bill Simmons is allowed to spotlight the Boston Red Sox and Celtics one season after another, then can I really be faulted for giving my hometown team a thorough review? Well, I probably can, but that’s what you’re getting today anyway.
With the season opener for the Detroit Tigers set for today (unless the Michigan weather can manage to thwart it), I figure this is as good a time as any to share my thoughts on how the team will perform this year. Mind you, I was a season ticket holder since ’99.
Was?
Yup. Past tense. The Old Man and I talked it over and opted out of season tickets this year.
But the Tigers are heavy favorites to win the division and possibly contend for the AL pennant.
Sure. But nearly every game is on television along with a full slate of other games thanks to MLB Extra Innings or as I have taken to call it, the Greatest Invention… EVER!
(You would think with the way I’ve played the shill for the Extra Innings package, that MLB or Comcast would kick something back my way. Nope. Nothing. The consistent sucking-up you’ve encountered here is purely uncompensated sucking-up. The package is that good. And now, back to our regularly scheduled article…)
Just because the season tickets are gone doesn’t mean I won’t see my fair share of ballgames this summer. The wife might not be too happy, but I still plan to make it downtown fairly regularly for weekday games, more commonly known as the Businessman’s Special.
But we’re not here to discuss my baseball viewing habits. We’re here to analyze my Detroit Tigers.
My Detroit Tigers?
Yup. As stated earlier, I’ve had season tickets for nearly a decade, including the dreadful 119-loss 2003 season. (I couldn’t give tickets away that year. If I handed someone a pair of Friday night tickets, they would look at me like I insulted their deceased grandmother.) During these thin times, friends and acquaintances would ask, “So what’s up with your Tigers?†If they were mine during the rough times, I’m not about to give them up when things start going well. (Except for the season tickets, of course.)
This is how I see 2008 turning out for my Detroit Tigers.
Catcher: Ivan “Pudge†Rodriguez is still the main man behind the dish. Expect him to continue his slow decline towards mediocrity – but what else should you expect from a catcher that will turn thirty-seven after the season? The fact remains that Pudge is still an asset to this team when compared with the average production from other major league catchers. (At this point, I could go into Win Shares and how Pudge sizes up but I honestly believe he brings a bit more to the table than is illustrated by this metric. One thing I agree Win Shares does illustrate is that Pudge isn’t aging like a fine wine.) There’s still something left in the tank, but not much. As long as Pudge is batting near the back of the order – seventh, eighth or ninth – he’ll have some value.
First Base: The move from shortstop to first should benefit Carlos Guillen’s bat and overall health. At short, Guillen’s age was beginning to show. At first, Carlos might be a Gold Glove candidate. Though he’s unlikely to be a forty-home run hitter, with this lineup, Guillen doesn’t need to be one. When things are going well, Carlos can post a .400 OBP (see 2006 season). If that’s the case, the Tigers will be more than happy with the production from their “new†first baseman. Though he’s not a typical first baseman, Guillen is sure to be in improvement over recent incumbents.
Second Base: When Placido Polanco was traded to the Tigers back in 2005, I was well aware of what he was likely to bring to the lineup. In the two full seasons since the deal, Detroit fans haven’t been disappointed. Batting in the two-hole in the order, expect “Polly†to continue his torrid hitting in the middle of this formidable lineup.
Third Base: The biggest of the offseason additions, Miguel Cabrera brings a big bat and a healthy appetite (you don’t become 240 lbs by accident). Though I’m not a fan of his defense at the hot corner, Miggy’s bat is scary. .542 career slugging percentage. A robust .388 OBP. Sandwiched in the order between Maggs and Guillen, Miggy has a solid chance to post his best numbers yet.
Shortstop: Though he’s nearly two months older than Guillen, Edgar Renteria was brought in to improve on the former shortstop’s declining defensive range. Renteria brings a decent bat with him and a modicum of speed, but this really just buys the organization a year or two of time at this position. Considering the way owner Mike Ilitch goes out of his way to improve his teams from year to year, it’s a fairly safe bet to assume Mr. I will open up the checkbook for a new shortstop when the need arises.
Right Field: When Magglio Ordonez signed his disgustingly fat contract with the Tigers, I complained. When management continued to permit Magglio to don a glove and play the outfield, I really complained. When Magglio posted a .434 OBP along with a .595 slugging percentage, I shut my mouth and realized he had earned his pay in 2007.
But that was last year. Now it’s 2008 and we can expect some eye-popping numbers from Maggs, but don’t hold your breath for a repeat of last season. That was a career year. His bat will still produce and if he takes his defense as seriously as he seemed to in 2007 (which was a drastic improvement over 2005 and ’06), then Ordonez probably won’t draw my ire.
(Oh, who are we kidding? If he doesn’t continue the red-hot hitting, there’s no way to justify his bloated contract. Hit or face the wrath of the blogger!)
Center Field: I drafted this guy for my fantasy league back before the opener in 2006. I wasn’t disappointed. Then he went and defied logic by not only improving in 2007, but by improving by leaps and bounds. Curtis Granderson won’t be repeating his 20 x 5 feat this year, but he’ll continue to be a major factor in the Tigers offense. He’ll be missed for the first couple of weeks with his broken finger, but as long as he’s leading off the top of the order and patrolling center field, the Tigers have a cornerstone on offense and defense.
Left Field: In case you missed it, the Tigers have a new left fielder. He bats left-handed and has a .280 career batting average. Most importantly, the guy can actually play the outfield. That’s kind of handy at Comerica Grand Canyon. His name is Jacque Jones and he was kind of a big deal for the Twins for seven years before being shipped off to the Cubs in ’06. Though Jones has largely gone unnoticed because of the arrival of other flashier players, expect his competent skills in the field and at the plate to be a major improvement over the Thames/Monroe debacle fans have been subjected to for the past few seasons. It’s the forgotten moves like the acquisition of Jones that often gets a team to a World Series.
Designated Hitter: If Gary Sheffield is healthy, it’s hard not to be impressed by his .397 career On-Base Percentage. When nagging injuries are bothering him, the lineup loses a considerable amount of punch. Unfortunately for the clubhouse – but luckily for beat writers – Sheff’s mouth is at work regardless of whether he’s on the DL or not.
The Bench: I’m not going to try and snow you here; bench players are backups for a reason. If the Tigers need to dip into their bench because of a long-term injury – or worse, a series of injuries – then the team is in trouble. Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas aren’t going to lead t his team to a World Series.
That leaves it up to Marcus Thames and Brandon Inge to make an impact off the bench. In Thames, the team as a potential DH and *gulp* left fielder. Thames can crush a ball and boasts an impressive slugging percentage. Unfortunately, he can’t hit for average, draw a walk, or play the outfield very well. But other than that, he’s an impact player.
Then there’s Inge. Detroit fans either love or hate this guy and there’s no opinion in between. Will we get the 2004 Inge that played all over the diamond and hit .287 or will it be a cranky I-want-to-start-at-third-everyday Inge that hits .236 and becomes a disruption? The ’04 version was arguably the team’s most valuable player. The ’07 everyday player didn’t deserve a job in the major leagues.
The Rotation: Verlander and Bonderman are the present and future of this franchise. There’s not much more to be said about Justin Verlander that hasn’t already. When he improved on his 2006 Rookie of the Year with a better campaign in 2007 – including a no-no – Verlander cemented himself as the staff ace.
Then there’s Detroit’s other young ace, Jeremy Bonderman. His 5.01 ERA in 2007 isn’t easy to dismiss. Actually, it’s scary. And his penchant for self-destructing in the first inning became a monkey on his back. After the first, Bondo would settle down and look like the ace everyone (aside from Billy Beane) hopes he will become. I’m willing to bet he not only improves on his 11-9 record, but he’ll also manage to lower a career ERA by a few points. Something like 16 wins, a 4.25 ERA,180 strikeouts and 200 innings.
Remember that episode of Seinfeld (“The Dealershipâ€) when Kramer takes a test drive and continues driving after the gas tank reads empty? Remember the blissful look on Kramer’s face when he and car salesman decide to drive by the exit ramp and forgo a fill-up? Well, that’s where Kenny Rogers is at this point in his career. Each time he takes the field, fans should grin like Kramer because nobody knows how much the Gambler has left in the tank. Had the Tigers won it all in ’06, Rogers might have gone out on top. I’m betting that Kenny is going to give 2008 his all and hang ‘em up. 14 wins from pure guile and moxie.
Luckily for Tigers fans, Nate Robertson is better than average on even years – 25-24 win-loss record. Odd years? A less than shining 17-31. If even-year Robertson shows up, the Tigers probably take the division. If odd-year Nate rears his ugly head, Detroit has to fight for the division.
In 2005, Dontrelle Willis won 22 games. In 2007, D-Train derailed with 15 losses and a 5.17 ERA. The Tigers will go as far as the D-Train takes them. 20 wins? They lock up the AL Central before the calendar turns to September. An ERA above 5.00 and the Motor City Bengals are praying for a wild card berth.
The Bullpen: I’m not a member of SABR, but I’m going to state with utmost certainty that a team’s closer is not nearly as important as most fans believe. For the most part, a double-A minor leaguer should be able to get three outs before giving up three runs. Closing a game isn’t all the big of a deal. It’s not easy. You or I probably couldn’t do it, but even Todd Jones is competent enough to handle the job. He’s fine – a bit of a roller coaster at times – but fine nonetheless. Don’t panic, Tiger fans.
The rest of the bullpen? I haven’t got a clue, and nobody else does either. When Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya are healthy, the Tigers are formidable through the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. With one or both of them on the DL (where they will begin the ’08 season), the ‘pen looks thin. Expect GM Dave Dombrowski to seek a lefty arm to compliment LOOGY Bobby Seay before season’s end. Until then, Tiger fans should hold their breath and close their eyes when Leyland makes a call to the bullpen.
Manager: Jim Leyland has said that he wins when he has quality players and isn’t worth a damn when he doesn’t. Well, he’s got a few players on this roster. Let’s see what our chain-smoking manager can do. I predict Leyland cooks through a pack-and-a-half on off-days and two packs on game days. And on those nights when Leyland has to dip into the bullpen early, he’ll start rolling his own unfiltered cancer sticks right there in the dugout.
So what do we have so far?
Improvements at first, third and in left offensively and a slight decline at catcher and in right field. Defensively, the team improved at first, short and left while third will definitely miss Inge’s range and athletic ability. Overall, the Tigers could be the best offense in all of baseball – they certainly have the best batting order from top to bottom. Expect a ton of scoring and average or better defense.
On the bump, the rotation will come down to the lefties – Rogers, Robertson and Willis. If they meet expectations – and they shouldn’t be high of any of this trio – the team will likely succeed. If the ball bounces right and these guys pitch to the best of their abilities, Detroit could run away with the best record in baseball. The talent is there, but health (Rogers) and consistency (Robertson, Willis and to a lesser extent, Bonderman) are the big question marks.
If the offense produces and the rotation can handle the load, not much will be expected of the bullpen. When (if) Zumaya and Rodney return, the Tigers bullpen could become an asset. Until then, calls to the bullpen will be a reason to pass the Rolaids and regret that early inning nacho platter.
My guess? 95 wins and the AL Central crown. As with any team, a series of injuries can derail the team – and because of age, this roster is susceptible – but the deep pockets of ownership and the plethora of young arms in the minors means the front office has the ammunition available to pull a big trade if the need arises. Mr I wants a World Series title and he won’t be shy about selling a few extra pizzas to make it happen. Fans can’t ask for much more than that.
As an added bonus, here are five things you can say to the most diehard of Tiger fans and not sound like an idiot:
“I wish Miggy chased down grounders like he does cheeseburgers.†One of the reasons the Marlins parted company with Cabrera was of his ever-increasing waistline. It was like he was trying to eat his way out of Major League Baseball.
“The bullpen is brutal.†If Zoom-Zoom and Rodney aren’t back soon, this will be said way too often and likely be replied with a simple, “Duh.â€
“Quick – what’s Leyland’s brand of choice: Lucky Strikes or Pall Malls?†Who cares, chain-smoking manager jokes are always good for a laugh.
“If Jason Grilli threw with his left hand, could he be any worse?†Honestly, I’m not sure.
“Despite it’s spacious size, Comerica Park ranked as a hitters park in 2007.†I had to throw one legitimate statistic in for you. In reality, it’s because the Tigers hit so well and didn’t pitch effectively that the park “moved†towards being a hitter-friendly venue. The size of the field should still play in favor of a pitcher even if it didn’t work out that way last year.
And there you are; more than 2600 words of Detroit Tiger preview. Enjoy the Tiger opener and share some of your newfound knowledge. Impress your friends, the guy behind you in the concession line, or the drunk on the barstool to your right. If you’re feeling generous, direct them to us here at Canon Fodder.