BY Freddy Cohen
The power and the glory of the NBA resides West of the Mississippi. Although the Eastern Conference has stripped the West of Kevin Garnett, the best basketball in the world is still played here. The Western Conference is once again locked and loaded for a super-competitive season.
There’s no shortage of storylines either. Can the San Antonio finally cement their right to call their run a dynasty? Will Steve Nash and company in Phoenix finally get over the hump and into the finals? What about Dallas? Last year’s wonder-team blasted through the regular season to earn the top seed only to get wasted in the first round by an inferior Golden State team coached by their former mentor (current tor-mentor), Don Nelson. Can the Mavs pick up where they left off from last year’s regular season and finally win an NBA title? Do others such as Houston feel they have what it takes to get into the deep waters of the playoffs?
NORTHWEST
The trade that brought Allen Iverson to the Nuggets last year sent joy throughout the Rocky Mountains. Alas, if you wished to create a permanent place in the first round of the playoffs for your team, you have found your man. The pairing of Iverson and Carmelo Anthony is a potent one but if you have two stars on your team and want to do some damage deep into the playoffs, their names better be Kobe and Shaq. Marcus Camby helps provide rebounding and length but there is something that just isn’t gelling. They are competitive and fun to watch but when the chips are down count them out.
Shame on Kevin McHale for not being able to surround one of the best players in the world, Kevin Garnett, with a suitable cast to compete for an NBA title. The Minnesota Timberwolves had what is the most important and difficult element to find in the NBA – a selfless big man that can score down low, rebound and play great defense. Otherwise he’s not much of a player. Garnett has become the toast of the NBA now in Boston while Minnesota will now flounder in mediocrity. This team is officially terrible. They received several players in return for Garnett but quantity nowhere equaled the quality they gave up. Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Antoine Walker won’t get it done.
The Portland Trail Blazers will be better in the future but now isn’t their time. They’ve seemed to have cleaned up their act and have brought in a few character guys. I like Brandon Roy at guard. He has the potential to rival the other big-time guards in the West as time moves on. Lamarcus Aldridge has potential as well to be a good, but not great, scorer. They now must be patient and wait for Greg Oden to heal. Oden, the #1 draft choice out of Ohio State, is considered their savior and rightfully so. With a flair for great defense and the ability to score, Oden can anchor the paint there for the next decade if healthy.
The Seattle Supersonics are brutal. I can put it no other way. Their lone hope is rookie Kevin Durant, the overall #2 pick in the draft out of Texas. They are young and not talented (a fatal combination) and they will be found languishing at the bottom of the standings.
The Utah Jazz just keep moving along. Gone are the days of Stockton and Malone, henceforth known as the glory days in Utah. Jerry Sloan keeps law and order as the wily veteran coach, but with a new and interesting cast of characters. I love Deron Williams. He’s their point guard (but don’t tell anybody) and is one of the most exciting young players in the league. Although only a second-year player, he leads the team vocally and by example. He called out teammates in the off-season for packing it in too early last year in the playoffs. This although the Jazz reached the Western Conference Finals. Carlos Boozer is a great power forward and complements Williams well to form a kind of Stockton-Malone lite (a little more filling and not as tasty as the original, but still a worthy product). They overachieved in the playoffs last year and gained a lot of experience in the process.
CONCLUSION – A very weak division overall. There’s a lot of hype in Denver for their two-man gang but more talk than action when things matter. Portland, Seattle and Minnesota are trying to find their way but have no chance this season to even make the playoffs. The cream of the crop here is Utah, who will win the division by default more so than ability.
PACIFIC
The Los Angeles scene will be on its head this season as the Clippers take hold of bragging rights to the Staples Center. The media and fans will not realize it however, begging the question: If a team gets better than another team and no one notices, does it really matter? Although the Clippers are more talented than the Lakers, it won’t mean much as they still need to defeat others teams in the league. The loss of guard Shaun Livingston hurts their chances. Elton Brand, when healthy, is a force at forward and he is good for 18 and 10 almost any night. However, his health is a big question coming into the season. Chris Kaman is back from his year-long vacation and should have a solid season. I don’t care for their chemistry and they’ve too many chuckers for my liking. Still should be better than last year and likely secure a playoff berth.
Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. Beware what you ask for; you might just get it. A watered down roster where he can shine is not all it’s cracked up to be. Kobe’s still good for 35 a night it seems. That’s where the fun ends. Lamar Odom is maybe the softest second-best player on a team I have ever seen. He’s no Scottie Pippen, although I’m not sure if Scottie Pippen was Scottie Pippen looking back, and Odom starting to wear down at this point in his career as well. Zen mastery isn’t as much fun for Phil Jackson when he doesn’t have the most talented team as he has for most of his head coaching career. It goes to show that it’s a player’s league. To coach, you better have among the top five in talent if you hope to compete at the elite level. Don’t expect too much from the Lakers this year and you won’t be disappointed. Your centers are Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm. Oy!
The Sacramento Kings remember only a few years ago when they had an exciting squad that came this close to the finals. Ah, the good old days!! Unfortunately this isn’t your older brother’s Kings. It may not even be the “Queens†as Shaq used to say. Maybe the “Jokers†would be more appropriate. Trade rumors swirl around an already aging Mike Bibby as he’s the team’s best chance to move forward via subtraction. It’s the 9th year for Bibby already. Everyone’s favorite, Ron Artest, has been quiet as of late. Good behavior does not necessarily equate into success however. A boring team headed by ex-showboater Reggie Theus. This team is nothing more than a collection of ill-fitting parts.
If you’re looking for a fun team to watch, the Golden State Warriors had a marvelous run in the playoffs featuring a squashing of the #1 seed Dallas Mavericks last spring. An upset for the ages, the team played over their heads with ex-Mavs coach Don Nelson getting into the heads of his old team. A perfect storm enabled the Warriors to show some life in the playoffs. Let’s not forget, there was a reason they were the #8 seed to begin with. They’re led by Baron Davis, a feisty point guard who has a flair for being clutch and a floor general. Stephen Jackson, former problem-child of the Pacers, has supposedly cleaned up his act by the Bay and is providing leadership (no, really) to a relatively young team. An overrated coach who does rise to the occasion now and then, Nelson looks tired and sometimes bemused by his position. I don’t have much faith in them that last year’s playoffs were the real Warriors.
I wish we could have a league with 8 teams with one of them being the Suns. When the elite teams get together it is like a different league with some of the best basketball ever seen being played. The Phoenix Suns, if they were a single player, would be classified as a “studâ€. They have a high powered, high-wire offense that normally leaves opponents’ defense in tatters. Unfortunately, the elite teams many times can do the same to the Phoenix defense. They try to ignore their Achilles ’ heel by outscoring teams. In the regular season it works. In the playoffs, not so much. Last year it seemed they were poised to break through and were neck and neck with the San Antonio Spurs in their playoff series. A little short and a little late and the Spurs went on to their fourth title. The team does have a few questions in need of answer. Steve Nash is the best point guard in the NBA but he’s up there in years and somewhat slight in stature. Can he withstand the heat for upwards of 100 games in an environment where he’s required to be a huge part of their offense? He needs to be paced and that’s where Leandro Barbosa may be their most important player (as unlikely as that seems). He’s an energetic guard with a knack for distributing the ball. Learning under Nash has helped his game plenty. I can’t tell if Shawn Marion is overrated or not. He’s a whiner that wants out of Phoenix but they may try to hold him in place for what could be their final serious run at a title. Amare Stoudemire is an elite center that can jump out of the gym and lead a team in scoring and rebounds on any given night. Simply put, the Suns are loaded.
CONCLUSION – The reputation of the teams in the Pacific are better than what you will see on the court this season. The best team far and away is Phoenix, who should cruise to the division title. The Clippers are the best of the rest and should be in the playoffs. For the others, I wish them well in the lottery.
SOUTHWEST
The New Orleans Hornets seem younger than they are. However, the roster headed by Coach Byron Scott is not up to the speed of the higher-end models in the division. Scott, who led New Jersey to back-to-back finals what seems ages ago, isn’t known for his X’s and O’s. He must have big-time talent on his team in order to compete (which he doesn’t). Chris Paul is the team’s shining light. A 6’ guard out of Wake Forest, Paul is an exciting playmaker even if a bit undersized. He will need a much better cast around him though. Tyson Chandler showed signs of coming out of his professional basketball coma last year but that’s more on the rebounding end than elsewhere. We’re talking about a borderline playoff team in a loaded division.
How will the Houston Rockets survive without Jeff Van Gundy? Remember all the playoff series won under Jeff? Neither do I. And when your franchise is an enigma, there’s only one coach to call upon – Rick Adelman. Adelman is a curious choice as he himself never led any team to an NBA title although he has shown the ability to take teams very deep into the playoffs while at Portland and Sacramento. Time will tell if his system can work in success-starved Houston. The cupboard is far from bare. Houston has underachieved during the Tracy McGrady-Yao Ming era to say the least. No playoff series victories – period. McGrady’s teams just haven’t performed well in the playoffs and there’s no excuse for it. He’s an electric scorer that doesn’t play a lick of defense. Yao’s a force in the middle and is slowly improving his game. Technique aside, many question his ability to carry a team deep into the playoffs. Does he have the heart of a champion? Very questionable even with his recent inspired play. The balance of the roster is pedestrian. The addition of Luis Scola out of Argentina will help.
The league is filled with two kinds of stars. Ones that have proven to produce championship hardware (not many of them, admittedly), and those that get paid bundles of jack and have excellent regular seasons. The formerly mentioned McGrady falls into the latter class as does Dirk Nowitzki. History has shown you need to have “The Man†on your team when the chips are down in May and June. The Mavs have everything in place for a deep run save this element. Is Dirk that guy? He had better be if Dallas is to compete. Avery Johnson is a fiery leader and a great motivator. He also has an incredible regular season record and could do no wrong until last spring. The question still exists: What the heck happened? They were the #1 seed with the best record in the NBA and got schooled by the Warriors. There’s no excuse and I am not sure they have patched up what was wrong from last season. Jason Terry’s a clutch-shooting guard that’s Avery’s doppelganger on the court. Josh Howard is a smooth Wake Forest product who will be counted on to carry the load throughout the season. I get a kick out of watching their up-and-down style. However, like the Suns they are a bit light in their Converse.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the Tampa Bay Devil Rays of the NBA Southwest. The most intriguing thing about this team is whether or not their star player, Pau Gasol will be traded as has been discussed constantly over the past year or so. This is a really bad team unable to get out of its own way.
Finally we come to the reigning NBA champion, the San Antonio Spurs. With an uncanny ability to pluck the juiciest b-ball fruit from around the world, this organization has been the gold standard going on a decade. From coach on down, they unassumingly go about their championship-level business as quietly as any dynasty I’ve ever seen. Coach Greg Popovich has won four NBA titles with San Antonio – only one less than Pat Riley. By the noise level, you would have thought Riley won his and Pop’s. San Antonio’s star player right now isn’t Tim Duncan but Tony Parker. The NBA Finals MVP showed leadership and toughness and can be expected to produce it all again this season. Former MVP Duncan is a Hall of Famer in-waiting and the best low-post player of this generation and maybe the best power forward ever. Manu Ginobili is a terror-slasher that makes terrific plays with flair in an otherwise conservative environment. Duncan is up there in years and needs somehow to be paced.
CONCLUSION – Texas sports the best basketball in North America if you are calculating volume. All three of their teams are in the Southwest which should make for some serious infighting throughout the season. I say half of the West’s playoff entries will come from this division, probably the best overall in the NBA. New Orleans will sneak into the playoffs on the lower-tier. Dallas still has the goods to win the division and should by a few games. The Spurs and Rockets should both be outstanding as well, fighting it out for a first-round home advantage.
Regular season MVP – Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTION
- Phoenix (1) – def New Orleans (8)
- Dallas (2) – def Denver (7)
- LA Clippers (6) – def Utah (3)
- San Antonio (4) – def Houston (5)
- Phoenix (1) – def LA Clippers (6)
- San Antonio (4) – def Dallas (2)
Western Conference Finals…
- San Antonio (4) – def Phoenix (1), 4 games to 1.
The Spurs are just too good for the rest of the field. They have the best coach, the best nucleus, an excellent bench and the top defense in the West. The Suns suffer another close look at the Finals but fall just short.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS – WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
NBA FINALS
San Antonio Spurs versus Boston Celtics. In a match-up chock full of potential Hall of Famers, Kevin Garnett finally gets his chance to shine with his running buddies Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. The Spurs desperately want a repeat to cement their legacy. The Spurs finally wear down the Celtics with a deeper lineup and a playoff-tested coach.
San Antonio defeats Boston Celtics, 4-2 to repeat as champions.
Finals MVP – Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs