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Gambler’s Corner: Week 17

Friday, December 28th, 2007

By Joe Moskwa


I was 1-1 on my big parlay last week, thanks to the Cowboys. (I thought they would cover the 11 points against the Panthers.) What a year so far, I still can’t put my finger on anything. Well, a COUPLE things have been easy to pick. Like the Jaguars. Or the Packers at home. Or the Pats to just win outright. Well, I was 2-1 in the non-parlay picks, which would’ve put me at about even for this week if I’d have actually placed those bets.


As for THIS week, it’s Week 17. For those of you that are unfamiliar, Week 17 in the NFL is like no other week. There will be about a handful of games that actually MEAN something, and I don’t think we have even ONE game that features BOTH teams playing for something. If you’re going to wager this weekend, there are a couple easy strategies to look at. First, please don’t touch any games that have two teams that aren’t playing for a spot. Second, learn which teams will be benching starters. How would one know that, you ask? Well, you don’t. Unless those same teams have done it in years past, which we have here. (I’ll get to that.)


One last thing before the picks; let’s have a moment of silence for the NFL regular season. It’s gone. All the intense channel-flipping between numerous games is over. Fantasy football is gone. Most of your favorite teams are done for the season too. Next week the playoffs start, and we all know what comes with it. Sure, the best teams are playing, and the games get better (for the most part), but have you ever sat down and just tried to watch just ONE NFL game? Well sure you have, but while I compare this to watching 4-6 games at one time, I can’t bare to think about sitting through all those commercials, and even worse, when there’s a coach’s challenge. Whenever I see a red flag, that’s a “flag” for me to get up, hit the john, get another drink, maybe grab a snack, perhaps look out the window, maybe do a shot… then come back and see if the challenge is done. During the regular season, that red flag is a prompt to checkout a different game. I’ll still watch every game though, but I will miss the regular season.


Okay, onto the picks…


Saturday night
New England Patriots (15-0) at New York Giants (10-5) – G-Men getting 14.5

The Giants clinched their playoff spot, and a win this week does NOTHING for them. I also heard Coach Coughlin say something along the lines of how the rest of the NFL couldn’t knock the Pats off, so why is it up to them to ruin the perfect season? This is code for a white flag. Also, is their anything short of creating a Pro-bowl type team for this game to try and stop the Pats from going 16-0? I doubt it. While I haven’t picked the Pats correctly ONCE this season, I’m calling it now.

PICK: Pats cover the two touchdowns and change.


Sunday
Detroit Lions (7-8) at Green Bay Packers (12-3) – MotorCity Kitties getting 3.5

There isn’t a thing that can be decided here, playoff-wise. But did you know that the Lions make the trip to Lambeau every year and haven’t won there in 16 seasons? This is a personal bet I make every year, just because. I’m gonna bet it until I lose, and I haven’t lost since I was in grade school. I gotta go Packers.

PICK: Take the Cheeseheads and give the figgie and change.


The next two picks I’m going to make are based on teams that I KNOW will be sitting starters. These two games will conclude my picks for this week. I’m confident in at least a 3-1 record for this weekend.


Dallas Cowboys (13-2) at Washingtong Redskins (8-7) – ‘Boys getting 9.5

The Cowboys have homefield LOCKED. Expect to see Brad Johnson and several other backups playing. The Redskins control their playoff fate, so a win this Sunday gets them an invite to the post-season dance. This is one of the easier bets for me to make this weekend. (The Vikings sure blew it this year, didn’t they?) TAKE THE SKINS

PICK: Racial slurs giving nearly double-digits.


Tennessee Titans (9-6) at Indianapolis Colts (13-2) – Horsies getting 6

The Colts do it EVERY year. Automatic. Their last one or two games mean nothing, and they just lay down. If you are still playing fantasy football this week, and you have Peyton Manning or Joseph Addai, please bench them because Coach Dungy will be doing the same. Also, the Titans control their own fate as well. Unfortunately for the Cleveland Browns, they will be the odd team out when Tennessee wraps this win up. Take the Titans.

PICK: Thumbtacks giving the six.


Some notes before I wrap up:


Teams that REALLY blew it this year: Saints, Browns, Vikings. I’m especially bummed about the Browns. I wanted to go catch a Steelers-Browns or a Colts-Browns playoff game this year, in person. I still may catch a match in the RCA Dome anyway.


Expect a playoff “Gambler’s Corner” for the postseason. I got a week to try to get an explanation together on how the Pats aren’t winning the Super Bowl this year. (I might not even be able to convince MYSELF they won’t win though).


My New Year’s Resolutions: Be funnier when I write. Drink MORE before I write. Visit the Hall of Fame in 5 years when Roger Clemens is inducted. (Editor’s note: No way Clemens makes the first ballot. Not happening.) Try not to pick on Michigan fans as much. I bet Coach Rodriguez could beat Appalachian State though.

Happy New Year. Only a coule more days until champagne, lamb chops and some good bowl games.

Posted in Canon Fodder, Joe Moskwa, NFL, Sports Betting | No Comments »

Gambler’s Corner: Week 16

Saturday, December 22nd, 2007

By Joe Moskwa

So while I was 7-9 for the week (at this point, I should start REVERSING my picks after I make them), including 2-3 on PREFERRED picks (I did NAIL that Lions game, didn’t I?), I was 1-0 on drinking predictions. (I’ll elaborate). The one thing I DID get right was predicting a round of yager-bombs on me as Adrian high-stepped into the end zone. I ordered a round for the whole bar, so the bartender chick tells me it’ll be a few to get that all ready, so about 10 minutes later they line them up all along the bar. Everyone has theirs in front of them, and JUST as we’re about to drink them, Peterson does that little video-game dance into the end zone. It was the highlight of the night.

Before I get to the picks, I will make one more attempt to save face. I’m going to leave most of the games un-picked, and pick a couple LOCKS (games I’d just about bet my old Priest Holmes jersey on) or PARLAY. The reason being? Most of these games mean NOTHING, and there’s no way to pinpoint what kind of motivation some of these clubs will have. I’d honestly let Edward Scissorhands give me a backrub before I watch a few of this week’s match-ups. Tip of the week: gamble on slot machines rather than football this Sunday if you have the itch.

Onto the picks…

MY PARLAY OF THE WEEK! (I would need to go 2-0 to win)

GAME 1:

Saturday Dallas Cowboys (12-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-8) – Black Cats getting 11.5

Thanks, Dallas. I talk about you guys making the Super Bowl and you score 6 points at home. I’m expecting you to bounce back now. The Panthers are playing for nothing, and Dallas is close to wrapping up a home game for the NFC title. I’m gonna take the ‘Boys in a blowout. Even though I don’t even know what STATE they’re playing in. PICK: Dallas giving all those points, –11.5

GAME 2:

Sunday Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) – Black, blue and silver getting 14.5

They might be boring to watch, but DANG! 10-4 with the hardest schedule in the NFL? The Colts couldn’t smoke the Raiders, but the Jags will. The Jokeland Raiders should just stay home.

PICK: Jags giving even more points, –14.5

So that’s my parlay. Dallas and Jacksonville.

Now here are my “LOCKS” or I suppose my “PREFERRED”. These are the games that I feel confident that I’d finish with a winning record.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-10) at Detroit Lions (6-8) – Chefs getting 4.5

The Chiefs just look like they’re not even trying. It’s sad. I was hoping to check out Larry Johnson and/or Priest Holmes, but that ain’t happenin’ now. As for the Lions? Their slide is just as impressive. But not sad like the Chiefs. More like comical or typical. Too little too late for the Lions this Sunday, as they win by 7. PICK: MotorCity kitties giving the points –4.5

New York Jets (3-11) at Tennessee Titans (8-6) – Titans by 2.5

This one almost made it into the parlay. I haven’t a doubt in my head that Tennessee takes this one by at least a field goal.

PICK: Tennessee –2.5

Miami Dolphins (1-13) at New England Patriots (14-0) – Dolphins getting 22.5

Dear Dolphins: Why couldn’t you guys lose last week so we could get to watch your last two games of the season? You ruined it. Luckily, we’ll still tune in for this one just to watch you guys lose by about 40. I hope you’re content with your ONE win.

PICK: Pats giving an obscene amount of points, –22.5

A game to avoid:

Monday Night Football Denver Broncos (6-8) at San Diego Chargers (9-5) – Bolts by 8.5

The writing says to take the Chargers at home on Monday night, to run their record up to 10-5. Broncos have been VERY unimpressive. Chargers are HOT. However, it’d be just like Coach Shanahan to pull some 7th-string RB out of his hat and somehow win the upset. So, no thanks. (TIP: avoid the Broncos when betting or playing fantasy, NO EXCEPTIONS).

I’ll wrap this up with a Christmas touch. Here are the 10 teams that I would send a bag of coal to, if I were the NFL’s Santa Claus.

Carolina Panthers. I don’t know who your quarterback is. I couldn’t name your running back. You have ONE wide receiver. I still have no clue what state you guys play in. Plus, the inconsistency reeks. Coal for you.

New Orleans Saints. You’re up and down every week. You give us nothing to rely on, no predictability. You lose to the 0-8 Rams, knocking me out of a suicide pools. And to top it off, the Brees-Colston combo makes it to the Fantasy Championship in both of my leagues, leaving me in the dust. Coal for you.

Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers. So the bay area gets TWO teams, and they combine for a total of eight wins. What, ONE of you can’t have a decent season? The Joe Montana free-pass is gonna last a WHILE for the Niners, and as for the Raiders, well actually their fans – Guys, those costumes you wear… get a LIFE!! Coal for you.

Cincinnati Bengals. Way to mail it in about a month ago, guys. Carson, Chad, Rudi, and Hoosh = 10-20 points a game? Your grade: F. Coal for you.

Chicago Bears. Congratulations! You’re about 8 months away from starting a NON-sucking season. (Assuming you’ll follow the Suck-win-suck-win trend you’ve been setting). You guys were in the Super Bowl last year, and this is what you bring? C’mon. Coal.

Miami Dolphins. I can’t believe you guys blew the perfect season. You were SO close. I was looking forward to the Bengals-Dolphins game next week. Coal for you.

Baltimore Ravens. Uh oh! Solid defense + subpar offense = winning team. Subpar offense + a dwindling aging defense = the mess we’ve been treated to this year. That defense you carried for all these years gave your offense SO much time to improve, and it’s still right where it was five years ago. Not good guys. Not good at all. Coal for you.

Denver Broncos. I still… haven’t… figured out… what you guys are doing. Ever. I just don’t get it. Always overrated, yet annoyingly unpredictable. Coal for you. Detroit Lions. Well it’s not like they SURPRISED anyone with their skid. Well, knowing Lions fans, they’re all probably sitting around complaining like they really WERE shocked. I’ll spare the Lions the coal this year, and just give it to their fans instead. Why? Because they’re the ones I’ll have to listen to at all the upcoming holiday parties. They seriously sound like it’s some kind of breaking news that they “need to change this” or “need to trade this guy” or “need to fire Millen”. It doesn’t matter. It is what it is, like the sky being blue. Coal to the Lions fans because you sound like morons while I’m just trying to zone-out on the couch.

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Gambler’s Corner: Week 15

Friday, December 14th, 2007

By Joe Moskwa
I’d like to thank the New Orleans Saints for covering on Monday Night and getting me over the .500-mark. 8-7 for Week 14 puts me at 112-90 for the season. Lucky for ME, I don’t bet on EVERY SINGLE GAME every week. I’d just be spinning my wheels. With that being said, I’m going to do a little something to the picks this week. I’m still going to make ALL the picks, but to perhaps add a little credibility to my name, I’m going to highlight the games that I WOULD actually put a little something on, and I’ll have a separate record for those on the side. We’ll call these picks my preferred picks.
On a side note, this time of year can be tough on me. About half the games aren’t even worth watching anymore. There are primetime games that are garbage (see this Thursday). Fantasy Football is USUALLY gone. However I’m in two MASSIVE final-fours right now, so I’m pumped. (Thank you Jamal Lewis and Larry Fitzgerald). So what I plan to do this week to enjoy one of the last few regular season weeks we have left (because let’s face it, it’s all about the regular season. It is. Trust me), is to REALLY lay it all on the line. We’re talking beers, vodkas, extra side dishes, marinating the bbq meats just a little bit longer before cooking, and staying out EXTRA late on Monday nights. Ask my wife how she felt about me crashing at 3am a couple nights ago. On a Monday. Like I’m some college kid or something. Work on Tuesday? HA! Right. I’ll see ya there. Just keep waiting if I’m not on time. Well, the point is… who’s with me? Anyone? Guys there are only three weeks left! Call me. Email me. I’ll show ya what it’s all about.
Time for the picks!

Thursday Night

Denver Broncos (6-7) at Houston Texans (6-7) – Broncs giving 1.5

Dude, there’s a HUGE bash this Saturday night, and I called your boss, got you the night off, and we’re GOIN. Really?? Yeah!! And get THIS. It’s a Dungeons and Dragons party, we got a keg of Mountain Dew, a platter of soy-sprout subs (on ‘I can’t believe it’s not bread’ bread), and a DVD set of Bosom Buddies season II for when we take breaks. PLUS – no girls allowed because we don’t want them seeing us looking at the 2008 Former-First Wives Swimsuit Calendar. I heard Nancy Reagan really crosses a line on the April page.
The above conversation is 100% equivalent to THIS conversation:

Dude, there’s NFL football this THURSDAY!
Really??
Yeah!!
Dude, it’s Broncos-Texans! **awkward silence**
Ummm.
Alright. So House is still on right?
Yeah I think so.
I hope it’s not a rerun. Well, even if it IS a rerun…

PICK: Texans. They’ll bring it. What’s “it” you ask? Who cares?

Saturday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) at San Francisco 49ers (3-10) – B’gals giving 8.5

I can see where the NFL was going when they set this one up before the season started. They actually did a good job, considering. Should I start Carson Palmer or Kurt Warner this week in a playoff that only counts yards and TDs? No penalties for INTs. Probably Kurt. I’m still undecided though. Joe Montana gave the Niners about a 30-year free pass to just coast by and suck, so I can see Carson tossing two or three TDs. I’m open to feedback here guys. Spill it.

PICK: Bengals. By about 13.

Sunday
Arizona Cardinals (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (6-7) – Cards getting 3.5

My opponent this week has Drew Brees. Should I start Kurt to compete Drew in a shootout? Should I start David Patten to offset his Coltson? I’m a high seed and I’m facing a low seed that’s gotten red-hot and squeaked in. He’s actually favored now. Throwing fantasy football aside because even without it I’m surely going to tune in here. I’ll get to watch two teams from different conferences fight out a hanging-from-a-playoff-thread battle – with PASSING. Cards don’t even think about Edge around the goal line, they throw it in. Same with the Saints. All throws around there. I love it. I bet this game goes three and a half hours. That’s longer than my first date.

PICK: ‘Aints –3.5. They pick one off and take it back.
Atlanta Falcons (3-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) – Dead Birds getting 13.5

Oh God. Seriously. Did you know that one out of every two women will suffer a fracture during their life due to osteoperosis? And if they are post-menopausal, the risk doubles? Did you also know that the last two sentences I just typed are probably more interesting than this game? Don’t watch this game. For the life of you.

PICK: Bucs giving the points in every way, shape and form. PREFERRED PICK


Baltimore Ravens (4-9) at Miami Dolphins (0-13) – Phish getting 4.5

What would get more ratings nationally? Dolphins versus Ravens, or a marathon of That’s so Raven? Also, why are there SO many teams in the NFL named after birds? It’s FOOTBALL, not field hockey or knitting. The Seahawks, Ravens, Cardinals, Eagles, and Falcons should all consider re-naming their teams after something that has something more bite than a beak. Teeth should be the constant. It’s that simple. As for the ‘Phins, you guys are now named the Miami Minnows until you win a game. Win one, and you can be the Miami Sharks. (Thank you, Any Given Sunday.) Side note: Ravens Defense or Buccaneers Defense (hosting Falconettes) for fantasy playoffs this weekend?

PICK: Puh-lease. Poe’s Boys giving the 4.5. PREFERRED PICK


Buffalo Bills (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (8-5) – Browns by 6.5

Yes, yes, YES! If you knew when and where I grew up, you’d know how pumped I’d be about this one. I’d almost pay to banish the Colts and Patriots to the Mars Football League, just to even some things out. These two teams are quietly having solid seasons and I’m loving it. I’d probably actually GO to this game, but there’s some birthday/Mountain Dew/pretend-meat sandwich party I have to attend, so traveling is out of the question. If anyone likes the Bills or Browns, come over this Sunday. It’ll be on the main TV.

PICK: Take the points. It’s gonna be a fight. Bills +6.5. PREFERRED PICK


Green Bay Packers (11-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-10) – Pack by 10.5

Sometimes it seems like some of these teams just mess around on Sunday. No game plan, no motivation. Sometimes they play down to their opponents. The Pack doesn’t do that. The Rams looked like they were improving, and then their offense doesn’t score a single TD against the Bengals last week. Take the Pack here by two TDs.

PICK: Cheeseheads minus the double-digits.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-4) – Iron City giving 4.5

I have a feeling I can turn this game on with about a minute to go and the score is going to be something like 2-2. I’ll tune in around overtime. And do the Jags have a tough schedule or what? They always seem to be playing the Colts or Chargers or Steelers or something. And they’re 9-4. Maybe some of the other franchises should dump their teams and start over as expansion teams? **cough, cough** Lions. **cough**

PICK: Jags and the +4.5.
New York Jets (3-10) at New England Patriots (13-0) – Biplanes getting 24.5

I’ve never seen spreads like these in the NFL before. Ever. 17 used to be HUGE. 24? Are you kidding me? How do you bet this? Every time the Pats give a ton, they end up winning by three. Every time they give about 10 or so, they win by 40. Since the Pats seem to able to do whatever they want, how am I supposed to know how much they basically will decide to win by? They are sick. I’ll have to go Pats here, since the Jets only have one play that works, it’s a counter to #29 Washington. That’s it.

PICK: Pats giving the nearly a quarter century, –24.5.
Seattle Seahawks (9-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-8) – Black cats getting 7.5

Coach Tomato-Head and his Seahawks are slowly and quietly heating up. What are they going to do with Shawn Alexander next year? Maurice Morris is the better fit.

As for the Panthers, if you guys had ANYTHING worth watching, I’d probably know if you guys were in North Carolina or South Carolina. (Yeah, I couldn’t even guess).

PICK: ‘Hawks minus the touchdown and change.
Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-9) – Chefs getting 3.5

Titans. Ouch. Rough last week. Someone forgot to tell you that THIS was the week that you’d only have to play 3 quarters to win.

PICK: Thumbtacks –3.5.
Indianapolis Colts (11-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-9) – Horsies giving 11.5

BLOWOUT. Next?

PICK: Colts –11.5. PREFERRED PICK


Detroit Lions (6-7) at San Diego Chargers (8-5) – Kitties getting 11.5

Maybe when John Kitna predicted 10 wins this year, he was counting the exhibition games too. (Not that it would have helped.) And the game last week against the Cowboys was CLASSIC Lions. That huge deflation will result in the Chargers being up 14-0 early and never looking back this Sunday. This is a horrible mismatch. My only concern is that my boy LT won’t score as much as usual for me this week, as Gates looks primed for a huge game. This is gonna be bad. Forget the spread, I would give 16 on this one.

PICK: Take the Bolts and give the points. PREFERRED PICK


Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (12-1) – Iggles getting 10.5

Think the Cowboys are going to screw around again Sunday? T.O. will show up with a couple of his uncovered, all-alone, not-a-defender-in-sight touchdowns. I can’t wait to watch these guys in the Super Bowl this year. And not just because of the cheerleaders.

PICK: ‘Boys minus the 10.5.
Sunday Night Football
Washington Redskins (6-7) at New York Giants (9-4) – Racial slurs getting 4.5

The Giants seem to be escaping their slump, and they have a job to do this weekend. I expect them to take care of business while the Skins sit around and decide if they are supposed to be good or not this year. I still have no clue.

PICK: G-Men giving the points.
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (7-6) – Teddy bears getting 9.5

Hey Bears. Weren’t you just in the Super Bowl last year? Or did I dream that? Nice job guys. How do you get away with just playing every OTHER season? This is a primetime division game, which would indicate taking the points, however the Vikes control their destiny and will take notes like the Pack – and NOT mess around. They win by 10. Yager-bombs on the house for every time Adrian Peterson does that videogame “high-step”.

PICK: Vikes giving.

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